A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
